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CLICK TO ENLARGEPETALING JAYA: Inflationary pressure in Malaysia is expected to prolong going into 2022, according to economists.

This is given the rising global food and transportation prices that can lead to further disruption in the production supply chain amid growing concerns over the spread of the Omicron variant.

Overall, economists have pegged the inflation rate to between 2.3% and 3% for next year.

In November, the headline inflation, as measured by the consumer price index (CPI), accelerated to a five-month high of 3.3% year-on-year (y-o-y).

When contacted by StarBiz, economist Shankaran Nambiar expects inflationary pressure will continue in the first half of 2022.Malaysian Institute of Economic Research head of research Shankaran Nambiar.

“So far, it does not look like the inflation numbers can be flattened in the first half of 2022,” he added.

Nambiar also foresees transportation problems arising from the high logistic costs and congestion at the ports that would probably persist in the first quarter or even in the second quarter of 2022.

Furthermore, the cost of raw materials and intermediate goods could likely remain at higher levels compared with the pre-Covid-19 period.

“The cost of food items will not drop for a while, given the bad weather, high cost of fertilisers and labour shortage.

“The low value of the ringgit against the US dollar could also have some effect to a certain extent,’’ said Nambiar, who is the head of research at the Malaysian Institute of Economic Research (MIER).

He opined that inflation could easily touch 2.5% this year.

“Should the government policies take effect, then I expect that inflation could likely moderate to about 2.4% next year.”

Nambiar also pointed out the supply issue of migrant labour into the country.

“How quickly the supply of labour can be normalised is yet to be seen. If all these issues are not effectively contained, then our inflation could touch 2.7%.

“MIER is looking at an inflation rate of between 2.4% and 2.7% for next year,” he added.

Bank Islam Malaysia Bhd chief economist Mohd Afzanizam Abdul Rashid concurred that high food and transportation costs could further fuel inflation next year.Bank Islam Malaysia Bhd chief economist Mohd Afzanizam Abdul Rashid

He said the supply bottleneck would take a while to be resolved as some industries continue to face problems in procuring labour and raw materials in a timely manner.


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