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Higher pay: A man passing by a securities firm in Tokyo. Japan is set to unveil a set of incentives that use the tax code to try to coax businesses into raising salaries and punish those that don’t. — AP

TOKYO: Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is following last month’s record economic stimulus package with a move to boost worker pay as part of his campaign to revamp Japanese capitalism so prosperity is shared more widely and growth is more sustainable.

Japan’s ruling party is set to unveil a set of carrots and sticks that use the tax code to try to coax businesses into raising salaries and punish those that don’t.

The promised tax breaks are roughly 50% more generous than ones already on the books, according to a draft of the Liberal Democratic Party’s (LDP) tax plan for fiscal 2022 seen by Bloomberg.

Pushing up worker pay that has languished for years won’t be easy, though, especially given that Japan’s economy has lagged other developed nations in recovering from the pandemic.

Success could help growth take firmer hold, while failure could contribute to the new prime minister joining a long list of the country’s revolving-door leaders, especially if he also struggles to keep Covid under firm control. Kishida faces more elections next summer.

Economists say the tax measures are a good start, but not sufficient because the faster growth that’s long eluded Japan is what businesses really need to pay workers more, a tough chicken-and-egg problem.

The economy has shrunk in five of the last eight quarters, with growth next year forecast to be the slowest among the Group of Seven nations.

“Unless it comes with policies to raise productivity and shift industrial structures, I don’t think it’ll function well,” said economist Yusuke Inoue at Marubeni Research Institute, referring to the tax plan.

“Companies that don’t have money can’t raise wages.”

Kishida has made boosting middle-class incomes a centrepiece of his agenda, promising higher pay for public employees such as nurses and caregivers, and calling on companies to give workers a raise exceeding 3% at labour negotiations traditionally held in the spring.

This is the level of gains he’s looking for to give a cycle of wages, prices and growth a renewed push. Japan’s key inflation gauge is still barely above zero even after eight years of massive Bank of Japan stimulus measures and with input costs shooting up at the fastest pace in four decades.

For its part, the nation’s biggest business lobby, Keidanren, appears to be rebuffing Kishida’s call.

The group is counselling firms whose profitability has yet to recover to focus on maintaining employment. Lower pay in exchange for job security has been a trade-off in Japan for years.

With a key measure of costs for Japanese companies jumping to the highest level in decades amid spiking commodity markets and global supply chain issues, many businesses don’t have breathing room to consider wage increases, according to economist Harumi Taguchi at IHS Markit.


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