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,Recovery, vaccination, politics to determine momentum

KUALA LUMPUR: The FBM KLCI’s performance this month will hinge on the country’s ability to maintain its high vaccination rate and accommodate quick economic recovery and growth.

CGS-CIMB Research in a strategy note yesterday said the market rally’s momentum in August can be sustained this month, if states with high infection rates can progress into the final phases of the National Recovery Plan (NRP) as quickly as possible.

“For the rally to sustain, we think investors will want to see evidence of a recovery in economic activities, higher vaccination rates in states facing higher new Covid-19 cases and more states moving to phase three and four of the NRP.

“We maintain our FBM KLCI target of 1,604 points and our view that investors could position into recovery stocks in August and September.”

Analysing the FBM KLCI’s historical data, CGS-CIMB said performance tends to be negative in September with an average month-on-month loss of 1% over the past 10 years and a month-on-month return loss of 0.8% over the past 43 years.

The research house said investors will be keeping a close eye on the latest economical, political, corporate and global developments this month, prior to making any market-related investment decisions.

“Market watchers will be tracking the release of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting on Sept 9 and tabling of the 12th Malaysia Plan on Sep 27.

“Investors will also be looking at potential changes to the government policy following the appointment of the new prime minister and cabinet in Malaysia. Also in focus will be the US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meetings on Sept 21 and 22.”

CGS-CIMB said investors will also be focusing on fund flows to detect if the recent net buying by foreign investors in Malaysia is sustainable.

“Also in focus will be the ongoing second-quarter results season as well as plans to relax the current movement restrictions in the country and simplification of the standard operating procedures.

“They will also be eyeing news flow on the vaccine rollout to states with low Covid-19 vaccination rates.”

Additionally, CGS-CIMB said investors will be monitoring how the Delta Covid-19 variant is affecting the number of new Covid-19 cases, as well as the roll out of Covid-19 vaccination and distribution programmes globally.

“Also in focus will be the Chinese government’s regulatory crackdown on a range of Chinese companies.”

From a political standpoint, CGS-CIMB said investors will be closely monitoring developments when Parliament reconvenes on Sept 13.

“Issues in focus will be whether the vote of confidence for the prime minister will be tabled and whether he will initiate a confidence-and-supply agreement with opposition parties to ensure political stability.”

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